The NYC mayoral election and the future of economic populism

Carl Gerken

After his victory in the New York City (NYC) mayoral election Zohran Mamdani has been hailed as not just the future of the Democratic party, but the leftist movement all over the world. The self-proclaimed socialist’s meteoric rise, from just polling at a few percent, to securing the nomination of the Democratic Party, to winning the election has been called a hallmark. On paper Mamdani’s victory is surprising, outside of being a democratic socialist Mamdani is also young and a muslim. These are all rarities in the American political landscape and further proof to his supporters of the effectiveness of his brand of economic populism with a laser-focus on affordability. His campaign with large scale grassroot organization, active usage of social media and optimistic but decidedly anti-establishment rhetoric has been pointed out as the way to do progressive politics by the more radical segments of the left. The question however, is how contingent Mamdani’s campaign is on the unique political landscape of America’s largest city. Because there are a few aspects that need to be kept in mind when analyzing the politics of the megacity.

After years of rampant inflation affordability has become one of the most important issues of US politics. This is especially true in New York, the most expensive city in the country. At the same time NYC is also one of, if not the most left-leaning city electorally in the country. No republican presidential candidate has won the state since 1984 and the city is represented in congress by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a self-described socialist, just like Mamdani. Another rather rare detail is that the incumbent mayor Eric Adams tenure had been mired with corruption scandals, squandering his chances for re-election. This led to the Democrats disowning him, forcing him to run as an independent – yet another rarity in American politics. So although Mamdani stands out on the American national stage, that’s not really where he is an actor. He is a municipal politician in New York, where he fits into an established political landscape. This is in sharp contrast to his main opponent. 

When Mamdani announced his campaign the front runner for the Democratic nomination was the former governor of New York Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo was seeking to make a political comeback after having had to resign the governership following allegations of sexual harassment. Cuomo had an image as the personification of the Democratic party establishment even before Mamdani’s campaign cast him as such. Cuomo, the wealthy son of a former governor and member of Bill Clinton's cabinet could not credibly distance himself from the very unpopular Democratic party leadership, all the while having to take responsibility for his controversial handling of the Covid-19 pandemic as governor. Mamdani couldn't have asked for a more convenient opponent for a campaign with a focus on renewal and critique against the Democrat party line. After being defeated by Mamdani in the Democratic party primary election Cuomo opted to run as an independent. 

The Cuomo campaign's primary strategy of trying to discredit Mamdani backfired because of the popularity of Mamdani and his policies. Mamdani’s messaging was simply reinforced while Cuomo did not manage to present a platform of his own, letting Mamdani set the agenda. Eric Adams, whom Cuomo had criticized relentlessly during the primary election, dropped out of the race and endorsed Cuomo, hurting his credibility severely. Then president Donald Trump intervened, endorsing Cuomo and unsuccessfully urging the Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa who had no real chance to win, to drop out and also endorse Cuomo, weakening the Republicans. This meant that Cuomo was backed by and associated with two of the most severely unpopular politicians in NYC, being portrayed by Mamdani as not only a continuation of Adams administration, but as Trump's proxy.

All in all, the board was completely set in Mamdani’s favour, with each development playing into his hands. In other words, winning the election was the easy part. Now Mamdani needs to govern and to do that he needs to make peace with those he made his enemies to be able to win the election. To finance his ambitious, and expensive, programs and make good on his promise to tax the rich, he will need to cooperate with the state’s governor Kathy Hochul, who has taxation within her purview. The centrist Democrat endorsed Mamdani at the end of the campaign but they represent different party-factions. The political expedience of her alignment with him may waiver sooner rather than later as well, especially considering the fact that he may become a strong contender for the governorship one day. 

Mamdani will also need to appease Trump. Despite Mamdani’s extremely aggressive tone towards him the mayor of NYC will not be able to do much against the president of the United States, especially not a president who has shown as little regard for municipal self governance as Trump has. Mamdani will lose a power struggle with the president. Then there is Wall Street. When governing the financial capital of the world Mamdani will have to find a way to cooperate with the NYC business community all the while making good on his promises. Promises that he will be held accountable to and in case he cannot keep them it may not just cost him re-election, but sink his whole movement. 

Mamdani has become the face of the emerging economically populist faction within the global left that advocates for price controls, fiscal expansionism and especially wealth taxes. His mayorship will be the first test of the economic populists in government, and will be closely watched by allies and opponents alike. If he succeeds his brand of policy may define the left for the foreseeable future, perhaps even paralleling the rise of the far right. However he walks a nearly impossibly narrow tightrope between an electorate with sky high expectations and an establishment with vested interest in his failure. The same establishment he got elected by opposing but which he now needs to cooperate with. His fall may prove fatal to not just the left wing of the Democratic party, but likely the “tax-the-rich”-movement as a whole.