The electoral decline of European conservatism

Carl Gerken

In the past it has been possible to divide almost any parliament in Europe into a left- and right-wing bloc. Each bloc was dominated by a great party and often for a long time these were the only two parties being represented in the chamber. Even in countries with a long-standing history of multiparty systems the political establishment has been deeply bipolar, no matter how many parties got into the chamber. Election campaigns were characterised by the two big parties fighting over centrist voters. This meant welfare expansion with left-wing governments and tax cuts with right-wing ones, both prioritising appeasing the middle class. Conservatives always had their opponent to the left, the progressives theirs to the right, both moving closer and closer to each other leaving a vacuum of disaffected voters at their outer flanks. A vacuum soon to be filled by the far right. 

The far-right electorate typically consists of both conservative rural residents but also traditionally left-voting blue collar workers. In theory this should benefit mainstream conservative parties; they lose a few voters but gain a potential ally who can bring in voters who have been previously inaccessible to the right while the conservatives can continue focusing on the centrist voters. Meanwhile European progressive parties, which are often social democratic labour parties, have lost many of their core voters who have been central to their political culture which in theory should lead to not only electoral losses but also severe identity crises. But that is not what we are seeing, social democrats in countries like the UK, Sweden and Germany, have largely regeared, mainly towards urban women, or have been replaced with a liberal party, like in France. It is the conservatives who are losing voters. The British Tories are currently projected to lose most of their seats after their worst election ever, the Republicans, the formerly dominant right-wing party in France, gathered just 6% of the votes in the last general parliamentary election. Most recently the support of the Norwegian conservatives, Hoyre dropped to 14,6%, down more than six percent since the last election. This is the result of voter losses to the far-right, but in all these elections the left wing bloc has come out on top, despite former left bloc voters now voting for the far right. 

The most commonly given explanation is that conservative parties, in an attempt to win back their voters, have shifted rightwards, primarily on migration and cultural issues. In combination with close cooperation with radical right wing parties this has alienated centrist voters without substantial electoral gains. With centrists going to centre-left parties and the conservative base going to the far right, there aren’t many voters left for the centre-right. 

Another explanation is made by pointing out the longevity of conservatives in government. With a few exceptions, the standard incumbent party in most European countries has been a conservative party. The Tories in the UK, the Christlich Demokratische Union (CDU) in Germany and (to a slightly lesser extent) the Republicans in France have been able to consequently hold consecutive terms making their total tenure in government very long. This means that they can be held responsible, and be given the blame for, the state of the country by the opposition. The far right is acutely aware of this, centering a considerable part of their rhetoric on blaming incumbents and former incumbents for more or less all of society's problems which thereby has a greater effect on conservative parties. 

Although the development is similar in more or less all of Europe, the strategy of the conservative parties has varied. From isolation like the French Republicans and cooperation within the centre left, like the German CDU, to supporting governments led by far right prime ministers, like the Italian conservatives, Forza Italia. It is this choice that will define the role of moderate conservatives in the new political landscape. Liberals, social democrats and even the far left have already found their place, and retained a lot of their influence because of it. 

This does not apply to the conservatives.